Danny Burmawi

Danny Burmawi

The Muslim Vote: How 1% Could Decide America’s Future

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Dan Burmawi
Sep 08, 2025
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The presidency in the U.S could be secured by tens of thousands of votes in a handful of swing states. This fragility means that small, disciplined, and mobilized voting blocs can wield an outsized influence on the direction of the United States.

Islam in America is not numerically dominant, but strategically placed. Muslim-Americans represent just about 1% of the national population, yet they are heavily concentrated in swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia. In these battlegrounds, where elections are often decided by margins of less than 1%, the Muslim vote can determine whether the next President of the United States occupies the White House. This reality, already demonstrated in the last two election cycles, carries enormous consequences not only for domestic policy but for foreign policy, national security, and ultimately America’s civilizational direction.

The Mathematics of Fragility

In 2020, Joe Biden won Michigan by just over 154,000 votes, Pennsylvania by 81,000 votes, Georgia by 11,779 votes, and Arizona by 10,457 votes. In each case, the margin of victory was smaller than the Muslim-American population of those states.

  • Michigan has around 270,000 Muslim voters, concentrated in Dearborn, Hamtramck, and Detroit suburbs.

  • Pennsylvania has approximately 200,000.

  • Georgia counts over 100,000.

  • Arizona has a smaller but growing Muslim population estimated near 80,000.

When elections are decided by margins this thin, even modest swings in the Muslim vote can flip a state and therefore the presidency.

Muslim-American Turnout

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